Cada día más países ven un Estados Unidos que no es el que ellos pretenden.

’Listen more’ is world’s message to US

Según una encuesta, la imagen que el mundo tiene de EE.UU. sigue deteriorándose

Por Clarín.
Buenos Aires, 23 de enero de 2007.

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Un estudio de la BBC, realizado en 25 países, revela que casi la mitad de los encuestados considera que ese país es una "influencia negativa". En tanto, el 68% cree que la presencia militar estadounidense en Oriente Medio causa conflictos.

Siguen las malas noticias para George W.Bush. Tras ser vapuleado en encuestas nacionales, el presidente de Estados Unidos enfrenta también una creciente desaprobación de su política en el exterior, según una encuesta de la BBC de Londres que será publicada mañana.

La encuesta, en que el Servicio Mundial de la BBC entrevistó a 26.000 personas en 25 países, indica que un 49% estimó que el papel de Estados Unidos es negativo a nivel mundial. Y apenas un 29% opinó que ese país ejerce una influencia positiva en el mundo, comparado con un 36% hace un año, y con un 40% hace dos años.

La encuesta demuestra que siete de cada diez entrevistados en 25 países está en contra de la manera en que Estados Unidos ha lidiado con Irak, país que ocupó en marzo del 2003.

El sondeo señala que un 68 por ciento cree que la presencia militar de Estados Unidos en el Medio Oriente causa más conflictos de los que evita. Y apenas un 17% cree que los soldados norteamericanos son una fuerza de estabilización.

Un 67% criticó el tratamiento a los detenidos en la cárcel militar de Guantánamo, en Cuba. "Según la opinión pública mundial, en la actualidad, el gobierno de Estados Unidos parece escasamente capaz de hacer algo correcto", dijo Steven Kull, director del Programa sobre Actitudes de Política Internacional de la universidad de Maryland, que realizó la encuesta junto con empleados de GlobeScan para la BBC.

La encuesta fue realizada en países como Argentina, Australia, Brasil, Chile, China, Egipto, Francia, Alemania, Gran Bretaña, Hungría, India, Indonesia, Italia, Kenia, Líbano, México, Nigeria, Filipinas, Polonia, Portugal, Rusia, Corea del Sur, Turquía, los Emiratos Arabes Unidos y Estados Unidos entre el 3 y el 9 de noviembre. El margen de error fue de más o menos un 3%.

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’LISTEN MORE’ IS WORD’S MESSAGE TO U.S.

A BBC international opinion poll suggests there is widespread disquiet about the United States’ role in Iraq and its other foreign policy priorities. The BBC’s Jonathan Marcus analyses the results.

BBC. London, Tuesday, 23 January 2007.

The Bush administration’s toppling of Saddam Hussein has had several profound and unintended consequences.

One has been the way in which the destruction of both the Taleban regime in Afghanistan, and of Iraq’s military machine, have opened the way for the rise of Iran as a major regional player.

Another crucial but less tangible problem - as this opinion poll commissioned by the BBC World Service indicates - is that the US’s image around the world is being seriously damaged by the chaos in Iraq.

And if that was not bad enough, it suggests that America’s image problems are only getting worse.

The global image of the US has significantly deteriorated over the past 12 months, as the chaos in Iraq has deepened. And in 18 of the countries that were involved in previous polls, the slide in America’s standing has steepened.

Anti-Americanism rising

Overall, this new opinion poll sampled the views of 26,000 people in 25 countries.

Three in every four of those questioned disapproved of how the US government was dealing with the crisis in Iraq.

The poll did not just deal with Iraq. It also asked questions about the US handling of Guantanamo detainees ; the Israel-Hezbollah war ; Iran’s nuclear programme ; global warming ; and North Korea’s nuclear programme.

In every case, a majority of those questioned disapproved of America’s handling of the issue concerned.

This poll underscores conclusions drawn from several other surveys - that anti-Americanism is on the rise, and the more the US flexes its hard power - the more it deploys troops abroad or talks tough diplomatically - the more it seems to weaken its ability to influence the world.

Maybe Washington will bounce back. America’s image improved markedly in the post-Vietnam era.

But then there was still the Cold War to keep America’s allies on-side.

What is striking in this survey is how negatively the US is seen across a range of diverse countries. Indeed the same policies are, in many cases, even unpopular in the US itself.

This, then, raises an obvious question. Is it simply the Bush administration’s foreign policy or the whole image of America that is unpopular ?

Poll findings in more detail

Comparable surveys suggest that there is still strong support around the world for the values enshrined in US society. But it looks as though America itself is seen to be living up to those values less and less.

As a result, America’s soft power - its ability to influence people in other countries by the force of example and by the perceived legitimacy of its policies - is weakening.

And in a turbulent, globalising world, where the US - rightly or wrongly - is associated by many with the disruptive effects of globalisation, soft power matters more than ever. It is a resource that once squandered is very difficult to build-up again.

Complex issues

At root is the problem of legitimacy.

Iraq may have dented the utility of America’s military machine. But the US remains the world’s only superpower in an international system that shows few of the familiar landmarks we have come to associate with the past 50-or-so years of international diplomacy.

Asking, as this survey does, about the participants’ opinion of the US government’s handling of, say, Iran’s nuclear programme, provokes strong levels of disapproval.

But what does this really mean ? Is there any constituency at all for getting tough with Iran ? How far is Iran’s nuclear programme perceived as being a problem at all ?

Other opinion polls, asking different questions, suggest that ordinary people in many of America’s allies are indeed worried by the suggestion that Iran might acquire nuclear weapons.

It is the Bush administration’s handling of the issue that is reflected in this BBC poll ; not the policy options themselves. These are complex. They depend upon often unavailable intelligence and uncertain assessments of what the Iranian authorities are really about.

Opinion polls are not terribly useful then in charting specific policy options.

But they do capture a mood and that mood should worry anyone in policy-making circles in Washington DC.

The US undoubtedly has an "image-problem", and there are worrying signs that this is having an impact upon the administration’s ability to get the policy outcomes that it wants.

One of the wisest writers on these issues is Joseph S Nye, now Dean of the John F Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. He is in many ways "Mr Soft Power", having written and theorised about the phenomenon for many years.

He has long-argued that Americans need to better understand how their policies appear to others.

"To communicate effectively," he has written, "Americans must first learn to listen."

This opinion poll, then, represents a powerful argument for those seeking to make the case that Washington should listen more and try to win over its friends as much by persuasion and force of example as by firm actions and tough rhetoric.